Will the EU Develop a Pragmatic Strategy Toward Afghanistan?

Through humanitarian engagement, the EU aims to maintain ties with the Afghan people and civil society organizations. But higher level policy is less active.

In May 2026, the European Union accelerated its review of policies regarding Afghan migrants, with the primary goal appearing to be the return of migrants who had fled Afghanistan back to Afghan territory. Although the EU has not officially recognized the Taliban government, an Afghan delegation led by Abdul Qahar Balkhi, spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, is expected to visit Brussels in June to discuss migration issues, according to EU officials. 

Over the past decade, European countries have taken in a very large number of migrants, a significant portion of whom came from Syria and Afghanistan.

This wave of migration has had a considerable impact on the European economy. Under the Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF) for 2021-2027, approximately 22.7 billion euros has been allocated to migration and border management – funds directed primarily toward receiving and integrating migrants, as well as strengthening external borders. This figure represents a notable increase compared to the previous 2014-2020 period, during which roughly 10 billion euros went to migration policy. 

Furthermore, nationalist-minded parties are gaining significant ground across Europe, with growing calls for Europe to serve Europeans first rather than the world at large. In Germany alone, right-wing parties made notable gains in the 2025 federal elections, with the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party achieving its best-ever result and securing 152 seats in the Bundestag.

For 20 years, Europe was actively engaged with Afghanistan as part of the NATO mission in the country, with Germany, Italy, and France distinguishing themselves in particular. But from 2021 onward, the European Union has displayed a noticeably passive stance toward Afghanistan. The EU, much like the United States, rejected the Taliban government and declined to engage directly with it. 

Some shifts have occurred in U.S. policy; following Donald Trump’s return to power, diplomatic relations took on a sharper edge. In 2025, figures such as Zalmay Khalilzad and Adam Boehler made several visits to Kabul and met with the Taliban’s Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi. 

The United States has consistently viewed Afghanistan as strategically significant, approaching the country through a security lens and that perspective has led Washington back to a kind of pragmatic engagement below the threshold of direct contact. Europe, on the other hand, grew disengaged after 2021 and has continued to keep the Afghanistan issue at arms length.

There are several reasons for Europe’s sluggish policy toward Afghanistan.

First, the dire situation of women and girls in Afghanistan – their restricted access to education and the partial erosion of human rights – runs directly counter to European values. In 2022, for instance, all European states endorsed a United Nations resolution on Afghanistan demanding that the Taliban government immediately lift its harsh restrictions on women and girls. In 2024 and 2025, the European Parliament also passed resolutions condemning the Taliban regime for its systematic oppression of women and ongoing human rights violations, labeling the situation “gender apartheid.” 

In such a climate, if European governments were to engage with the Afghan government, their own publics could turn against them. In Europe, democratic principles hold a premium, and domestic social issues can easily ignite wide-ranging debate that has direct political consequences.

Second, beyond the issue of women and girls in Afghanistan, entering into dialogue with the Taliban could amount to Europe abandoning a wider range of its own principles. After all, having fought for democracy and human rights in Afghanistan for 20 years, befriending the Taliban – the opposition in that 20-year war – would mean walking back on those foundational commitments. The celebration of liberalism and its core ideals remain very much visible in Europe today, and pursuing a policy that runs against those values would be no easy task.

A further reason is that Ukraine dominates Europe’s agenda. Europe finds itself in a difficult moment where it has far more pressing concerns closer to home than the Middle East or Afghanistan. The conflict that broke out on the Ukrainian front in 2022 is still ongoing, and Europe has to keep its attention fixed there.

Finally, Europe’s interest in Afghanistan’s logistical potential is limited. What currently captures Europe’s attention is the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), announced by India at the 2023 G-20 summit, through which Europe seeks to develop trade ties with South Asia. This corridor could cut transit times by up to 40 percent and reduce logistics costs by nearly 30 percent. The linking of India and Europe via sea routes through IMEC could diminish the prospects of overland routes – the North-South corridor in particular. As a result, Afghanistan’s logistical potential is receiving little consideration.

Europe may nevertheless find itself moving in a more pragmatic direction when it comes to Afghanistan, shaped by the current geopolitical landscape, particularly as the weight of powers engaged with the Taliban – such as China, India and increasingly the United States – continues to grow.

One factor that could draw Europe’s attention back to the Afghan region is the threat of terrorism. Afghanistan remains a hub for terrorist activity, and despite the Taliban’s promises to rein in such groups, organizations like Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) and al-Qaida continue to operate there. This is a persistent source of anxiety for Europe, which fears that these groups could carry out attacks of varying scale on European soil. The attack carried out by ISKP on Moscow’s Crocus City Hall on March 22, 2024, which killed 150 people, stands as a stark reminder of Europe’s concerns. 

For this reason, Europe will inevitably keep its eye on the region as part of its efforts to counter the terrorist threat – and it is precisely why Europe has continued to provide humanitarian aid to Afghanistan. Between 2021 and 2025, the EU delivered over 2,240 tons of humanitarian cargo to Kabul through 41 flights under its Humanitarian Air Bridge program. In 2025 alone, the EU allocated more than 161 million euro in humanitarian assistance to Afghanistan, channeled through partner organizations – U.N. agencies, international bodies, and NGOs. Through this humanitarian engagement, the EU aims to maintain ties with the Afghan people and civil society organizations, as Europe believes that tackling terrorism requires fostering socioeconomic development in Afghanistan.

Additionally, should Europe set its sights on a more engaged foreign policy, its dialogue with China could also deepen. In this context, Afghanistan and the Central Asian countries could serve as transit corridors, which is part of why the EU is currently an active supporter of regional integration in Central Asia. As integration in this region advances and the Middle Corridor develops, Europe could strengthen its ties with China and explore large-scale economic projects running through Afghanistan.

Another factor that could spark Europe’s interest in the Afghan region is critical minerals. The United States and China are currently the world’s leading technology powers, but Europe has long held that status itself and may seek to reclaim it – a process that would require access to rare minerals. Afghanistan, in particular, is a region rich in copper, cobalt, and lithium, and is believed to hold mineral and metal reserves valued at over $1 trillion. For this reason, Europe may look to deepen its engagement with Afghanistan as part of its bid to restore its technological standing.     

Many nations are establishing ties with Afghanistan, despite its isolation and the Taliban’s control of its government. The Central Asian countries, China, and India, as well as others, describe this engagement as pragmatic. Russia has fully recognized the Taliban government in Afghanistan, and the United States has pursued diplomatic relations as well. Yet the world is still waiting to see where Europe stands.